Any category that has Win next to it is a category in which I think the film will win.
5 Nominations
Best Picture
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Win)
Best Cinematography: Matthew Libatique (Win)
Best Editing: Andrew Weisblum
Natalie Portman is an actress often associated with either The Professional or the Star Wars prequels, films that don't really show her chops as an actress. Some films that she's great in but aren't as widely known are Garden State and Brothers. Her performance in Black Swan falls into this latter category. She plays a character so unlike how she is in real life that its amazing how well she pulls it off. The character arc for Nina (Portman) is such that it requires Portman to go through the full range of emotions. Much like James Franco in 127 Hours the entire film resides on Portman's shoulders, and if she didn't pull it off it would have made Black Swan a run of the mill thriller as opposed to the impressive freudian allegory that it is.
Even though a good 20% of the movie takes place with the camera behind Portman's head, Matthew Libatique's cinematography is impressive. The movie is about a ballerina, and Libatique found a way to shoot ballet that essentially made the camera one of the dancers, easily conveying the sense of speed and grace that is ballet, but usually doesn't make the jump from stage to screen. The camera has a constant fluidity to it throughout the film, and is very clearly not in any physical space, a fact made unnervingly obvious during scenes in which the camera has no reflection.
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